Netease’s performance was lower than Bloomberg’s unanimous expectation, and its share price also opened lower. The game industry was involved and the products were homogenized, which was an important reason for its performance lower than expected. Fortunately, a new wave of products is approaching, and its three major products, the condor, the mobile game and the Sixteen Songs of Yanyun, will be launched gradually.
NeteaseReleased the financial report for the fourth quarter of 2023. As one of the few companies whose share price kept rising recently, its fourth quarter performance was less than expected, and its share price went down accordingly.fall. In terms of data,NeteaseNet income in this quarter was 27.14 billion yuan, up 7.04% year-on-year, and the growth rate was lower than.Bloomberg12.40% of the consensus expectations; After adjustment, the net profit from continuing operations was 7.4 billion yuan, up 53.40% year-on-year, lower than that of.Bloomberg65.90% of the consensus.
Based on a number of data, in addition to the natural fluctuation of the existing game flow and the fact that the fourth quarter is originally the off-season of traditional games, the competition of tencent games’s Dream Star is the main reason why Netease’s game business is less than expected.
In addition, in April, 2022, the domestic game version numbers were resumed. The recovery of the version numbers can indeed promote the development of the game market, but to a certain extent, a large number of games will be launched in 2023, which will lead to intensified market competition.
Temporary fluctuation of performance
Netease’s total revenue mainly includes three businesses, namely, games and related value-added services, Youdao and Cloud Music. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the revenues of the three businesses were 20.921 billion yuan, 1.481 billion yuan and 1.986 billion yuan respectively, up by 9.62%, 1.83% and -16.44% respectively. Combined with the group data, we can see that games and related value-added services are Netease’s main sources of revenue and performance. During the reporting period, the performance of this division was better than that of the same period of last year, while the decline of music revenue of Youdao and Yunyun dragged the group back to some extent.
As we all know, the domestic game market has always been divided into light and peak seasons. The peak seasons are the first and third quarters respectively, because the two quarters respectively include three important golden periods: Spring Festival, winter vacation and summer vacation.
According to the financial report data, in the fourth quarter of 2022, the revenue of Netease games and related value-added services was 19.086 billion yuan, with a growth rate of only 1.56%. From this perspective, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the data of Netease games and related value-added services were actually not bad, which was lower than market expectations. The main reason may be that the explosion of games such as "Going Against the Water" and "Egg Party" continued to push up market expectations.
Specific to the data level, the proportion of Netease’s mobile game revenue continues to increase, while the proportion of end-game revenue slowly declines. In the fourth quarter of 2023, Netease’s mobile game revenue was 14.988 billion yuan, accounting for 76.70% of online game revenue from 66.40% in the same period of last year, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28.83%, the second highest growth rate in the past two years, second only to 32.89% in the previous quarter, which also shows that Netease’s game performance in this quarter is actually not bad.
In the same period, Netease’s end-game revenue was 4.553 billion yuan, accounting for 23.30% of the current online game revenue from 33.60% in the fourth quarter of last year. In addition to the natural decline of the existing end-game flow, it is also digesting the impact of the suspension of cooperation with Blizzard.
Generally speaking, compared with end-tour, the gross profit margin of mobile games is higher, and the increase of its proportion in revenue also drives the increase of gross profit margin of Netease games and related value-added services. According to the financial report data, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the gross profit margin of games and related value-added services was 69.50%, an increase of 10.40 percentage points over the same period of last year.
According to Everbright Securities Research Report, the reasons for the rapid growth of Netease’s game business gross profit margin are as follows: First, the contribution of self-developed games has increased, and the IP copyright of self-developed games has a low proportion; Second, Netease is gradually trying to guide players to official website to pay for recharge and reduce certain channel share; Thirdly, the development cost of the casual game Egg Party is low, and its rapid growth plays a positive role in the overall gross profit growth of the game.
In addition, in terms of game data, the popularity of "Going Against the Water" has continued unabated since it was launched. Netease has attracted more than 100 million active users through continuous launch activities. According to seven wheat data, from June 30, 2023 to now, the average daily ranking of "Going Against the Water" in the best-selling list of iPhone games in China remained in the top ten, and the average daily income of iPhone in the fourth quarter of 2023 was as high as 159.50.
The performance of "Egg Party" is also good. According to the data of Qimai, in the fourth quarter of 2023, "Egg Party" ranked 13.6 on the best-selling list of iPhone games in China, and its average daily income reached 55.80.
It is worth mentioning that "Egg Party" has a strong leisure and gathering attribute, and its UGC system is also constantly creating content, with huge profit potential. It is precisely because of this that Tencent’s competing product "Dream of the Yuan" was officially launched in December 2023, and the emergence of competitors did have an impact on Netease.
Facing the competition of Yuan Meng Xing, Netease carried out volume marketing to cope with the adjustment. According to the financial report data, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the company’s sales and marketing expenses were 4.226 billion yuan, up 23.63% year-on-year and 18.46% quarter-on-quarter, which was the highest sales expenses in the last two years. The increase in sales expenses was also an important factor that led to Netease’s quarterly performance falling short of expectations.
However, from the data point of view, "Egg Party" withstood the first wave of "Dream Star" and even increased its ranking during the Spring Festival. According to seven wheat data, from November, 2023 to February, 2024, the best-selling list of iPhone games of Egg Party ranked 15.7, 12.4, 12.9 and 7.9 respectively. During the Spring Festival, the number of daily active users of Egg Party exceeded 40 million. From December, 2023 to February, 2024, Dream Star ranked 5.8, 15.9 and 23 respectively. Except for its popularity at the beginning of its launch, its ranking was behind the Egg Party.
In addition, according to Everbright Securities and Open Source Securities Research Report, Netease will also usher in a wave of small product cycles, and the martial arts RPG game "The Condor" will be released on March 28, 2024; The mobile game "Never Robbed" won the version number on February 27 and will start testing on April 1; "Sixteen Sounds of Yanyun" has completed the "Yellow Bell Test" in February, and is expected to go online this year.
The pessimistic side of the industry
After "Eating Chicken" and "the glory of the king" and "Fighting for Peace in Beijing", "Egg Party" and "Yuan Meng Xing" are the third time for Netease and Tencent to compete, which also reflects a problem that the domestic game market tends to be homogeneous. Once a certain explosive game appears, other manufacturers will follow suit quickly, and the domestic game market has entered the stock stage.
According to the China Game Industry Report 2023 released by Gamma Data, in 2023, the actual sales revenue of the game market in China was 302.964 billion yuan, up by 1.395% year-on-year, which broke through the 100 million yuan mark for the first time. Its mobile game was the core driving force of the industry growth, and the actual sales revenue was 226.860 billion yuan, up by 33.802 billion yuan, up by 17.51% year-on-year.
For the "recovery" of the game industry, the market has given many positive interpretations, such as the decline of many negative factors during the epidemic, the improvement of users’ willingness and ability to consume, and the adoption of multi-terminal concurrency by game manufacturers.
However, it should be pointed out that the sales data of China game market in 2023 can not "truly" reflect the market situation. According to gamma data, in 2021-2022, the actual sales revenue of China market was 296.513 billion yuan and 265.884 billion yuan, respectively, up by 6.40% and -10.33% year-on-year. Two important conclusions can be drawn from the comparison: First, if compared with 2021, the revenue growth rate of China game market in 2023 is only 2.18%; Second, the revenue base of the game market is low in 2022, which leads to the "distortion" of the year-on-year revenue growth rate in 2023. The first conclusion is easy to understand. The actual sales revenue of the game market in China has obviously slowed down, but to understand the second conclusion, we need to start with the rhythm of issuing version numbers.
According to public information, the game version number was suspended in July 2021 and resumed in April 2022, during which there was a nine-month version number vacuum period. Considering the game development cycle, the number of online games in 2022 was lower than in previous years, which led to a significant decline in game revenue in that year.
In addition, the change of domestic game user scale data also shows that the game market has entered the stock stage. According to the gamma data, from 2020 to 2023, the number of game users in China was 665 million, 666 million, 664 million and 668 million respectively, and there was almost no obvious increase in the number of users, which always fluctuated slightly around 666 million people.
In order to seek increment, domestic game manufacturers have gone out to sea one after another. From the data point of view, the game manufacturers who went out to sea have indeed achieved certain results. According to the open source securities research report, in 2021, the actual sales revenue of China’s self-developed games in overseas markets exceeded $18 billion, which has exceeded half of the actual sales revenue of the local game market.
However, with the turbulent international situation, fierce market competition and changes in privacy policies, the difficulty of going to sea and operating costs have increased. In 2022-2023, the actual sales revenue of China’s self-developed games in overseas markets also showed a decline, amounting to US$ 17.346 billion and US$ 16.366 billion respectively, up by -3.70% and -5.65% year-on-year.
More importantly, according to the gamma data, (1) the game’s overseas income is mainly concentrated in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Germany and other countries, among which the United States, Japan and South Korea provide more than 50% of the overseas income for China’s overseas games. In 2022-2023, the revenue of China’s maritime mobile games in the United States continued to decline, with growth rates of -5.10% and -4.50% respectively.
Relatively optimistic, in 2023, the revenue of China’s mobile games in Japanese and Korean game markets will change from negative growth in 2022 to positive growth.